As intraday traders we can be guilty of overtrading. Before the open and then intraday I ask myself: where is the real trade?
SPY today? The real trade was to short near 109. You could make up other trades but that was the real trade.
JWN? The real trade was buying a pullback when it spiked above the 32 level after a bull flag. That trade didn’t work but was one worth making. There were no other real trades for me in JWN.
CSCO? Shorting in front of the 21.60 level and waiting is the real trade.
LLY? Short below 35.50 was the real trade which again brought no coin. But at least that was the real trade.
APOL? A couple of our guys caught the steep downmove from 40 to 38.50. I will have to ask them what their real trade was here.
ADSK? I played the bullish flag pattern after 10:15 AM. Didn’t work but at least I was in the real trade for me.
BP? Long above 38 for an intraday trend trade.
This is a market where you must be patient and wait for the real trades. Were you today?
Mike Bellafiore
Author, One Good Trade (Wiley)
4 Comments on “Where is the Real Trade?”
CREE and VECO offer good short opportunity in the afternoon as well
Today seemed kinda slow. I didn’t think there was shortage of opportunity, just that trades didn’t work out. I was in the same trades on ADSK and JWN and I ended up losing money on them.
Real trades for me were CREE and KSS. CREE broke below the 57.70 level and there was an ARCA buyer at 57.50 who bought a truckload of shares. Just hit the bids when he dropped for a Trade2Hold. KSS was a short below 45.50 although I wussed out on this one 🙁
Yes I was, I made 15 (SPY pre-market) dollars and lost 8 on BBY. Shorted BBY at 33.44 stopped out at 33.52 just to see it drop to 33.15. I was looking to short BP at 38.78 but volume didn’t convinced me (good thing i didn’t).
LFL shot up on the momo scanner an hour before the close, it based near its 52 week highs, and then did a measured second leg up. The news was of a merger between two South American airlines which came out after the first leg up. The real trade was when the second leg started.