When Charts Don’t Tell the Truth – $HUM $AGP

smbcapitalGeneral Comments, SMB Radar Update2 Comments

Yesterday HUM was In Play on earnings. It traded lower, much lower – in fact it had about a 7 point down move from the open. A number of traders on the desk did well in HUM, I wasn’t one of them.

Looking back at the chart I saw a lot of different trades that could or should have been made. Plays I would usually be in without a problem. But as intraday traders the chart alone doesn’t tell the whole story. I simply couldn’t figure out how to trade HUM. The tape made absolutely no sense to me, yet the stock was highly In Play (I think it had about an 8.2 IPR). But as a young trader I haven’t had enough screen time to quickly adapt to every stock in the universe of tradable stocks (this was my first time trading HUM). And when you have strict risk management rules, you must adapt quickly – giving away a large portion of my daily stop to “learn” the stock is not an option.

During my midday review, I thought about why I couldn’t make money in HUM and what I could do to change it. I decided it was best to throw in the towel and look for better stocks. I had already scanned the SMB Radar, and even posted part of the Weak / Strong Today list on the blog. After still not finding anything I liked using other scanning methods, I glanced over the Radar again to see if something had changed. I noticed AGP jumped to #1 on the Weak Today list (right above HUM). I punched it up and immediately liked the chart, so I looked over the news / levels / stats and started watching it trade. The stock immediately made sense to me. It traded polar opposite to HUM and suited my style much better. I ended up making back my HUM losses and more in very little time.

Looking at the two charts one would think a trader should trade one just as well as the other. I would disagree. Two stocks, both are top In Play / Weak Today on the Radar with charts that look very similar. While charts help us as intraday traders, I would still say there is much more behind them.

@tarhini_smb

2 Comments on “When Charts Don’t Tell the Truth – $HUM $AGP”

  1. Can you elaborate on the differences between the two charts? That is, why is one more tradeable than the other?

  2. “The tape made absolutely no sense to me, yet the stock was highly In Play”  – This was your clue to stay out of this stock.  If it isn’t clear don’t trade it.  Simple.  To many other (clear) issues to trade. 
    Keep rock’n. 

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