Tesla will report Q1 delivery numbers in the next day or so. In this video, Steve will prepare you on how to trade the release of Tesla‘s delivery numbers.
View Video Transcripttoday’s video I’m going to prepare you
to trade Tesla after they released q1
delivery numbers so stick around
[Music]
okay so I just wanted to do a quick
video on Tesla basically what we’re
looking at is q1 deliveries reporting to
tomorrow Thursday or Friday and I think
the expectations have come way down if
we take a look at the chart what we can
see is just looking at the 30 minute
going back over the last month or so
since the beginning of the sell-off in
late February we were Tesla was actually
an $800 stock and it sold off to blue a
700 bounced and then trended down with
most of the market it actually
accelerated to the downside from I guess
mid March from around 600 before
bottoming in mid 300s I had a really
nice bounce back up to 550 and in the
week since then until today really being
accumulated just about $500 a share and
actually was quite strong yesterday even
with the market selling off now more and
more estimates are coming out the
numbers are coming down I think they
right now we’re looking at probably
80,000 q1 delivery is kind of right
around where the consensus is and that’s
important for kind of the psychology but
if we look at the chart and I’m looking
at the 30-minute right now what we can
see is most of the trading that’s been
done in the last week has been between
500 and 535 let’s call it its peak
that’s had above 535 a few times look
like people were positioning themselves
long going into the queue one delivery
number and today I just think there is
some more flow in the last 24 hours
people talking about 70,000 deliveries a
very popular or YouTube person who
covers Tesla even said 65,000 so I think
I really think 80,000 is the number to
use in terms of expectations and if we
see the number coming above there
especially today we’re looking like it’s
gonna close well below 500 ollars a
share
I think there’s there could be
significant upside back up to that kind
of
of the range from the last three or four
days now if somehow they’re able to come
out with a ninety thousand card delivery
number I have no idea how they can do
that since they basically shut their
Factory down on March 23rd people have
potentially cancelled deliveries both in
the US North America and Europe unless
things have just gone completely
gangbusters in China because you know
China is back up to normal I don’t see
there being really much of a chance at
90 but if you see 90k delivery number
the stock pretty much is gonna be abide
no matter where it’s trading when that
number comes out and the upside would
probably be right back to $600 a share
where the sell-off started from in
mid-march
now on the downside it gets a little bit
trickier right because it’s already put
in that low with the market a few weeks
ago two weeks ago in the mid 300s not
expecting a retest there if the number
comes in let’s say 75,000 somewhere in
the mid 70s I could definitely see it
selling off a little bit the 450 to 475
a long position I did sell some more
puts today some 420 s going out a few
weeks to the when the earnings call is
gonna happen would be very happy to be
long more shares I’m basically
effectively a 400 I have some calls of a
lot of various strikes and calls five
80s and then five 70s maybe even some
six hundreds and that’s a bigger picture
like kind of longer term but in terms of
you know just creating it on the
announcement and trading it for the day
after I think it’s going to be if they
beat that kind of eighty thousand
threshold that’s come down the
expectations from you know at the
beginning of the quarter at a hundred
then it came down to ninety I think
that’s where everyone is right now is
right around 80
if you beat that number and the stock is
you know trading below 500 you’re gonna
you’re gonna see some upside there and
by how much they beat that 80 by that’s
gonna determine how strong how strong it
is I did a video about a month ago where
I talked about buying the next great
pullback obviously wasn’t anticipating
the global economy coming to a halt
other car manufacturers having to go
into their credit lines potentially
facing bankruptcy again I guess
Tesla is the best position of all the
car manufacturers globally in terms of
cash position they raise 2.3 billion
dollars last quarter coming into this
this this announcement they were
probably somewhere between eight and a
half billion in cash plus lines of
credit gives them access maybe up to
close to ten billion dollars so they can
weather a weak q2 and I think people
were looking at the guidance as well if
they bring their guidance down to four
hundred and fifty to five hundred
thousand this year the low end of that
guidance would be around the twenty five
percent grow three for 2020 where most
of your major car manufacturers are
going to collapse in terms of demand so
I think that would be another huge thing
for them I think the market would
actually like for them to bring down the
guidance and because if they can bring
down the guy and so give a lower part of
the range which still kind of pins them
towards strong growth I think that also
will be counterintuitive you’ll see some
headlines from the financial press well
test for Tesla lowers guidance in
rallies or something like that I think
what could hurt them in terms of
guidance would be actually no adjustment
even though that would be an attempt at
a show of confidence I think that’s
unrealistic and I think the other thing
I could hurt them on the guidance is if
they just wrote it way down to in line
with what the numbers they did last year
and so I think that’s where we are
I certainly will give more updates as
the numbers come out and I see levels
develop
