In this update, I will share several of my top ideas for the upcoming week.
Specifically, I will share the ‘why’ behind the potential trade idea and my ideal entry and exit scenarios and targets.
So, let’s get right into it.
Reality Check in LUNR
The Idea: Up well over 100% since breaking above its 200-day SMA in August. Nearing a turning point and momentum shift as shorts exhaust and price gets extended. I disagreed with this being categorized by many coming into Friday as an A+ short opportunity. Why? Simply put, the price had not extended significantly enough to the point where a significant pullback became the most likely outcome. Ideally, the extreme bearish sentiment will result in an A+ setup for the upcoming week.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
The Plan: I’d love to see the price break above Friday’s high and skip, signaling shorts have finally reached their threshold and line in the sand. Once that exchange occurs, often signaled by an outlier volume and price extension candle, and then engulfing move lower, I would be short versus the high of the day, with support of $8 and $6 as targets in mind. Alternatively, if LUNR fails below $9 and remains heavy under VWAP, I will be open to momentum scalps, but it would fall under a B category in that case.
Bounce Continuation in SMMT
The Idea: Overall, fantastic, potentially fundamentally changing news that resulted in the runup in SMMT, which has now been followed by a measured pullback and reset at higher prices. I am looking for a leg higher if the momentum is to continue.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
The Plan: Ideally, another day consolidating below its 5-day SMA. However, if the stock washes below $24 and quickly reclaims, confirming a higher low, I will be ready to long following a hold near/above Friday’s high. Should the relative strength and price action unfold as planned and provide an entry, I will target an ATR up move as target 1, followed by a move toward $30 as the end target.
Tightening Action in NVDA
The Idea: Straightforward, reactive idea in NVDA, considering its tightening range at its 50-day SMA. The contraction in range allows for a skewed R: R if the range continues to contract before picking a direction.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
The Plan: Reactive trade. If the range continues to contract, followed by a breakout above resistance, I will be long on the breakout. Momentum entry on the breakout, with a stop below the breakout level or previous higher low, depending on the intraday setup. After that, a trade like this will be managed more intraday-focused, with a 5-min higher low trail and taking profits on extensions on higher highs, with $125 in mind.
Bonus Mentions From Last Week’s Watchlist:
MU: It continues to shape up its double bottom. Same thoughts and plans from last week.
GOOGL: Beautiful continuation and bounce, as discussed in great detail in my most recent Inside Access meeting. Remains a focus for a pullback/consolidation, offering an opportunity to initiate a new position or add to an existing long-swing position.
XBI: A top focus of mine from now on, given the 50bps cut, how sensitive the sector is to interest rates, and its multi-year base and consolidation. It’s failed on multiple attempts to hold over $102 and $103s, so I’m sitting back for now and just keeping it on my radar in case that changes and we see buyers step up and break this pout over the 52-week high.
Pops to Short in Small-Cap Stocks
LFLY: It is unlikely, but if it can push back toward $2.8 – $3 and fail on Monday, I will be interested in a short versus the high of the day for a move back toward $2.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
GXAI: Similarly, if GXAI can undergo a secondary pump and squeeze on Monday, I will be interested in a short over $3, closer to its developing 2-day VWAP.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.