Traders,
It’s election week, so here’s my game plan and adjustments for the week ahead, including my top trade ideas with entry and exit targets.
Due to the election on Tuesday the 5th, this week’s watchlist will be different. Like last week, I’m focusing less on swing trades and more on intraday momentum trading until the election passes.
While last week’s watchlist had strong accuracy, your main takeaway should be to reverse engineer and study successful setups to better understand my strategies and key variables. That’s the goal each week—to help you refine your trading skills.
Here are my top focuses and ideas for the week, including election scenarios and individual plays.
Sell the News in DJT
The Plan and Idea: This was the top opportunity of last week, as outlined and discussed in the previous watchlist and in great detail in Inside Access. As I mentioned, this is simply a proxy for the election, while nothing fundamentally has changed for the company.
As a result, the best opportunity and scenario for me is if the stock gaps into major supply between $45 – $55 on a Trump win. Or perhaps gets chased even higher in the early hours of November 6. In either scenario, I would look for a quick, short-lived gap and push higher, followed by significant selling and notable heavy price action. I’d need to see early confirmation of a sell-the-news event.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Ultimately, I would position short versus the HOD once momentum shifts and I receive price action confirmation, targeting a LOD close and potentially maintaining a core position as a swing, as long as the stock does not reclaim its VWAP after making new lower lows on the day. If Kamala wins, DJT will significantly gap down, so there may not be a trade for me, as I would not chase it. The stock would need to bounce significantly for a short entry. However, I would avoid it in this election outcome as the risk reward will be diminished.
Thoughts on Bitcoin (IBIT)
Significant failed breakout right now in Bitcoin, as risk comes off and Trump’s odds have weakened. On a Trump victory, IBIT and relevant bitcoin-related stock might be a focus for a potential swing long should price action firm up on the news. Ideally, in that scenario, I want to see a gap higher briefly pull back to previous resistance and confirm it as newfound support. That would get me to position long for a swing.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
However, given the recent price action, I view momentum short trades as better risk: reward. For example, If MSTR continues to find supply and reject near $250, I would be focused on short positions versus the HOD, targeting new lows and only shifting my bias if the stock made a higher high on the hourly timeframe. No pre-set plan or bias given the election. I will monitor flows and price action and remain flexible.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Additional Names on Watch:
Amazon: Dependant on the overall market’s direction this week. I’m only interested in the stock for reactive trades around the all-important $200 area of resistance. I’ll enter long if the stock can base above $200, display relative strength, and higher lows intraday. If we push back into this and the offers stack and refresh, I’ll scalp it to the short side again.
Carvana: Nice profit-taking day on Friday. I’ll have alerts for a move toward its 2-day VWAP and $240 area. If the stock fails to follow through, I might consider a short versus the HOD for further profit-taking.
VKTX: Consolidating above its previous resistance coming into Obesity Week, where the company will present. Need to see the reaction to that and whether the stock begins to base near the $78 – $80 resistance for potential momentum higher.
SMCI: On close watch for potential breaking news opportunities off fresh headlines.
