Traders, I look forward to outlining my top ideas for the coming week with all of you.
For the time being, I’m staying heavily focused on intraday momentum trading over swing trading, where I found consistent success last month. Pockets of swing opportunities still exist, like the Bitcoin (MSTR, IBIT) short from the last watchlist, and combined with intraday opportunities, they made for a really strong week. I’ll stick with this approach until the market shifts. It’s undoubtedly a traders’ market right now.
So, coming into the week, here are my top focuses:
Higher Lows / Relief Bounce in Tesla: Fantastic action on Friday in Tesla, finding support and seeing buyers step in near its 200-day. Overall, I’m staying open-minded in this tape and not looking to chase extreme weakness or strength. Instead, suppose Tesla can begin to stabilize over its 2-day VWAP, or confirm a higher low on Monday. In that case, I’d look for an intraday long opportunity for a relief rally over $300 and its declining 5-day. If TSLA bases over $300, I’d continue to look for long intraday opportunities, trailing versus VWAP or 5-minute higher lows. The same thoughts apply to PLTR.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Backside in TRNR: We’ve been in an environment recently where shorts are beginning to get slightly complacent and stubborn. TRNR’s grind higher provides evidence of that. To be interested for a short I’d like to see this experience failed follow through over Friday’s high. Ideally, I’d like to see an exhaust over $3 and work out any stubborn shorts that are left holding this. After the exhaust, I’d like to see failed follow-through and some lower highs to confirm shifting momentum to get short versus the 5-minute lower high and intraday resistance, for a fade back toward $2.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Reactive Trades in Bitcoin: Unlike last week’s swing short in Bitcoin (IBIT, MSTR), I’m now focused on reactive trades around key levels from last week. If Bitcoin pushes back toward $90k and faces selling pressure, and/or we begin to see sellers step back into SPY / QQQs, I might look for intraday short opportunities. The vehicles of choice would be IBIT and MSTR, ideally toward $280, experiencing failed follow-through. Similarly, any flushes early on in Bitcoin and IBIT toward $46 – $47 and higher lows, I’d look for potential long scalps.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Relative Strength in Consumer Staples and Financials: Unsurprisingly, staples had notable relative strength recently. XLP itself is shaping up for potential continuation higher over Friday and last week’s high. That’s an area I’ll focus on next week. Within the XLP, many of its top holdings provide interesting setups and will provide insight into whether or not continuation will occur for the overall sector.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
For example, COST, its top holding reporting earnings on Thursday, is consolidating in a bullish technical pattern near highs. KO, another top-holding XLP name, is consolidating just 3% off its 52-week highs, presenting a similar potentially skewed risk: reward consolidation breakout long opportunity. I’ll be keeping a close eye on the overall sector and its top holdings next week for a potential long opportunity once I gather for confirmation.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Similarly, after Friday’s strong close, financials, or the XLF ETF, is now positioned well for potential follow-through over Friday’s high. I’d like to see a higher low followed by an intraday breakout above Friday’s high for a long opportunity. Such a move would interest me for a long against the higher low, for an intraday long targeting at least an ATR to the upside.