Traders,
I’m excited to share my top swing trading ideas for the week ahead. Following the FED’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, the market picked a direction after an eight-day consolidation and rest period, and my top idea from last week played out exceptionally well, with the semi-sector breaking out and following through immensely.
As the market continues to surge to new heights, my focus is on fresh breakouts and momentum trades. Although I am cautious here, things are beginning to get overbought and a bit frothy. But until it stops working, my focus will remain on the long side and within the setups that have been working for the last several months.
So, let’s get straight into it. I’ll share my top ideas and trading plans for stocks that could make significant directional moves this week.
Consolidation Breakout in NTNX
This is a textbook consolidation pattern in a stock that has been in a steady uptrend for quite some time. The stock has a history of steady, sustainable breakouts and continuation, so my timeframe here will be up to a full week, with a trailing stop, as I look for history to repeat itself.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Here’s the plan:
From the daily down to the hourly chart, the timeframes and critical levels align, which I look for in this setup.
$65 is breakout confirmation, and I want to see the stock break above and hold above with authority. Once that is confirmed, I will get long with a stop at the low of the day or below the most recent higher low on the 15-minute timeframe. I will manage the position on the 15-minute timeframe.
The lofty goal is a move to $70. However, I plan to scale out of the position as the stock trades up an ATR. So, I will cover half of the position on a move toward $67.50, and the remainder will be scaled out as the stock makes significantly higher highs on the traded timeframe. The final exit will be $70.
Consolidation Breakout in ARM
Once again, it is a fantastic consolidation that has significantly contracted in range. While all the talk has been about the lockup expiration, and bias shifted largely to favor the bears, the stock has held firm and continued to consolidate. I am unbiased and looking to react exclusively to price action here.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Here’s the plan:
Again, a key area of $138 – $140 in multiple timeframes shines through as resistance. Therefore, if the stock, with authority, breaks above this zone with volume and significant support, I will be thinking about getting long.
Specifically, I will look to get long once the stock confirms an uptrend intraday and holds firmly above the intraday vwap. I will enter long with reduced size and what I believe to be a wide stop near the day’s low ( that’s where I would be wrong ). So, it is a smaller size and a wide stop to let the idea play out without over-managing it.
My first target area is a move toward $145 – $150, where the stock could have some trouble. I plan to cover up to half of the position there, thereby locking in gains and removing risk. My stop will be trailed up using the 15-minute timeframe to higher lows. The final target is a move toward $160 – $164, although I will also be scaling out manually as the stock makes new higher highs on the 15-minute timeframe and use my discretion to stop out manually should price action change.
Two Additional Backburner Ideas:
YTEN: Targeting a push back into a supply zone of .55 – .65 for failure intraday and a short opportunity to ride it back down to the .30s.
BACK: I’m cautiously watching the stock if it pushes back above $3, the area of resistance from Friday, for failure intraday and a short against the high of the day, for a move back to the low $2s.