Traders,
I’ve got a fresh batch of ideas that could set us up for an exciting week ahead. In this update, I’ll walk you through my thought process and detail my entry and exit strategies for my top picks, which are poised for significant directional moves.
The expectation adjustment, rotation, and profit-taking expected in the semi-sector and NVDA, which I outlined last week, were spot on. The reversion trade in NVDA and semis was by far the greatest opp of the previous week, and one which I spoke about and reviewed in detail in my latest meeting on Thursday after the market closed.
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Now, here are my top ideas for the week.
Washout Long / Bounce in NVDA
This idea applies to a host of names, so it’s important to focus on what best suits your style. For me, I will focus my attention on NVDA and possibly SOXL as well to express the idea and trade if it materializes.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Here is what I am looking for:
Firstly, similar to the action in March on the 8th and 11th, history could repeat itself, and the stock could gap up into potential resistance. If that were to happen, and NVDA gaps into / trades into the low $130s, I would not be focused on the long. Instead, I would be open to a short scalp, which would be on a lower timeframe and intraday.
The idea I am excited about is if history does not repeat itself. Now that the rebalance is out the way and the stock has pulled back significantly from the high, I would love a washout near potential support in the low $120s. A further decline would excite me about the R: R for the long.
I would look for a washout and snapback or steady decline, then a trend break and higher low. Once there is a higher low and confirmation of a reversal, I will get long versus the previous low for a swing long. I plan on scaling out of the position on a 1 ATR up move, near potential resistance around $127, and trailing the stop using higher lows on the 15-minute timeframe, ultimately targeting a move above $130, potentially toward the low to mid $130s over multiple days. The key here will be to take profits into target 1, trail my stop, and continue to scale out of the position as the stock makes significant higher highs, thereby managing risk and turning it into a risk-free trade.
So, coming into the week, I will focus on NVDA and the semis. That’s where the range and liquidity are, and therefore, that’s where my attention will be.
However, several other names are on my radar as well:
Continuation in AMZN: Nice breakout and rotation into AMZN on Friday, as I discussed on Thursday in Inside Access. Going forward, if AMZN can continue to base above $188, I will look to get long on an intraday breakout with a low of day / $188 stop for a multi-day momentum long swing, targeting a move to new highs.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Monitoring META for a Breakout: META has been consolidating steadily across multiple timeframes with clear resistance. I will monitor it going forward for further consolidation and a potential breakout over resistance. If that develops, I will enter long once it has based above resistance, with a low-of-day stop, targeting a move initially toward the recent pivot high.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Pop to Short in MINM: Steady fail and weak close in MINM on Friday. Ideally, this has a push back into potential resistance and supply near $3.8 – $4. Once that confirms and fails, I would look for a short versus the high, targeting a move back to low $3.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Pop to Short in AREB: Similar to MINM. Targeting a push back toward the 2-day VWAP and fail for a steady walk lower and unwind. If it reclaims its multi-day VWAP, I will not be short-biased.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
