During today’s morning meeting we discussed some of the recent reversals we had seen in stocks that were trying to push through longer term support. We took a look at reversals that had recently occurred in MON and WYNN. Both stocks attempted to drop longer term support last week but failed. So I suggested that UAL might be a good long candidate based on this recent pattern. It was approaching 23.80 which was the low since the merger with CAL.

But that simple idea is not where our traders’ thought process should end. Each trader should spend time after the AM Meeting and throughout the day trying to locate stocks that are setting up similarly to the pattern discussed. Mike C popped by my desk right after I wrapped up the StockTwits broadcast. This was the conversation

Mike C: You see that AXP approaching…
Spencer: Yes, it is approaching long term support at 41.40
Mike C: You think I should get long?
Spencer: Yes, it is a good reversal candidate
Mike C: You think the stop is below 41.25?
Spencer: Yes. Good luck. TTYL

Flash forward 90 minutes later. I’m in my office working and I look up at one of my screens that shows the AXP chart. It is now trading at 42.25. So I fire off an email to CB asking him to tell Mike C to come to my office. Here is the conversation.

Spencer: What happened in AXP?
Mike C: I f**$$$d up! I—
Spencer: quiet. let me speak. You know what you have to do. You either will do it or won’t be trading in three months. It is what it is.
Mike C: I know. I know.

Noone ever said trading was easy. He recognized the setup. He had the right idea. He had confirmation from an experienced mentor. He even had confirmation on the tape as the 41.25 bid didn’t drop. But the execution just wasn’t there today. I have a feeling it will be tomorrow.