Find the Least Competitive Stocks (Part II)

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“Least Competitive?”  At first blush it sounds almost like admitting defeat. Come on, I’m a trader. In order to make it in this profession and derive a good living I have to be able to bang with the big boys right?  Let me give you one of the analogies that I use when mentoring that may coax you to think in a slightly different way about “Least Competitive”.

Let’s say I walk into a city park with lots of different basketball courts. If one of those courts is filled with guys that play Division I college hoops and I choose to walk on that court, I am going to have a long day most likely.  Think about it, a 6 foot white guy, slightly out of shape and rusty…. what’s my chance of having a great day on the court against those guys?  But if I walk over and start playing in a game of mostly 10 year olds ….I’d bet I could dominate!!

So as traders,  isn’t it our job is to find the court where our probability of having a good day is highest? Think about it as treating risk (risk of a bad day) like a pro. By choosing a court where my probability of success is better I am risking my money with a better shot of success. At some point when I can truly start to have many good days I will naturally look to find a more challenging court and expand my game.  The foundation of speculation is risk your money when your probability of winning is higher.

In the future I will use this blog to help you find ways that let you find the right court for your game and let you in on some plays that may assist your game.

Jeff Davis

@Shaq48_Trading

One Comment on “Find the Least Competitive Stocks (Part II)”

  1. I have applied this principle to my futures trading. For a long while, I felt compelled to trade the fast markets immediately following big economic releases. Huge, quick swings, effectively just rolling the dice, a net losing strategy. Foolish.

    But I’ve come to learn that once the initial reaction shakes out, the relatively slower trading that follows can be very fertile. For example, gold traded sharply lower immediately after the unemployment release on Friday, bottoming about 90 minutes after the number. I caught a nice chunk of the subsequent rally, and didn’t have a huge hole to dig out from.

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