Short term traders make thousands of trades each year. But not every trade is of equal importance to our bottom line. We develop a trading plan for every trade regardless of how large or small the opportunity, but with experience we begin to identify the trades that offer the greatest upside and the best risk/reward. I have found in my 20+ years … Read More
Fading An Earnings Gap–Darden Restaurants
In this video I discuss my thought process for shorting DRI after they released their earnings report. This follows a video from a few weeks ago in which I shorted RHT. Understanding the catalysts where an earnings gap is likely to fail can help you increase your win %. Add these to your playbook if they make sense to you. Steven Spencer is the … Read More
When A Stock Is Crushed
When a negative catalyst causes a stock to gap lower 20% or more it attracts a lot of attention. Should we look for a bounce? Should we stay short and look for more downside? Here are some things to consider Steven Spencer is the co-founder of SMB Capital and SMB University which provides trading education in stocks, options, forex and … Read More
Decoding Short Opportunities: How Goldman Sachs & JPM Morgan Created Profitable Moves in $SRPT
Our #1 trading idea for Friday was SRPT. It sold $300 million of shares in a secondary offering via Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Normally, biotech secondaries are excellent long set ups. The prior week I had been long AERI following its secondary offering and it traded 30%+ higher in a few days. But this time was different. I discussed why SRPT was likely a good short … Read More
How To Identify A Long Term Bottom–Twitter
In this video I discuss the process by which Twitter formed a long term bottom in 2016. This lesson has broad applicability for traders/investors attempting to catch larger moves (30%+) in the stock market. Steven Spencer is the co-founder of SMB Capital and SMB University which provides trading education in stocks, options, forex and futures. He has traded professionally for 20 … Read More
A Macro Trade That Is Working
Rarely if ever do I develop a trading thesis that involves macro analysis and a time horizon greater than a few months. But through conversations with pro traders with experience in the energy sector and reading a few excellent analyses on the oil sector I came to view oil as a great risk/reward long trade from the high $30s up … Read More
Is Citron Research Committing Securities Fraud?
The Citron Research website has been around for a number of years. It first came to my attention roughly five years ago when I was approached with an idea to make short trades based on their blog posts. That idea never panned out as the stocks they wrote about weren’t very liquid, and therefore the risk/reward didn’t make sense to me. Fast … Read More
Old School Market Manipulation
So my friend JC Parets tweeted recently that he is miffed by traders and investors complaining about market manipulation and not formulating a plan to profit from said manipulation. His point is, I think, as market participants our job is to find ways to extract profit from the market and if we recognize patterns/manipulations then we should have a plan … Read More