The goal of my blog is to teach traders about options. I started trading stock options back in 1985 making markets on the Floor of the CBOE. The changes over the past 25 years in some ways are good while others bad. My views come from looking from the floor outward. Computers have sped up the process but the game hasn’t changed much. I moved off the floor in 2002 as did many others. If the SPX pit wasn’t there the floor would make a nice indoor parking garage.
My philosophy in ways is contrary since I was taking the opposite side of the trade (position not deltas). Most of the time I was always long extra units (options) in my book. The times which I was net short units seemed to always cost me huge. I’d rather know what I can lose than not know the possible losses. There were many floor traders who took the opposite view and were always short premium and/or volatility and were successful. I just couldn’t trade that way and sleep at night. Over my career on the floor I carried limit positions sometimes but also traded small (5 or 10 lots).
My trading style did change a bit from the floor. Since your position is always changing while market making it was difficult to keep one on but off floor (since I’m not making markets) putting one on is easy. Over time I will present some old ways and techniques of trading which compliments current ideas. I compare it to using a calculator. One should know that 2+2=4 and how the process was derived rather than just plugging it into the calculator and assuming its right. In some ways the speed can be dangerous as we saw on May 6th (flash crash).
I will also discuss insights and experiences along with some very funny and in some cases sad stories. The first area that will be discussed is the back spread. Currently I think the market is at an important inflection point meaning the market is about to move big!!
THE BACK SPREAD
What is a back spread? It is when a trader uses an option and trades stock around the option position. In this example we will keep it simple and just use 1 strike price against stock. The main thesis behind a back spread is either volatility will increase or the intraday stock movement will pay for the daily Theta (decay). Everyday options decay and the rate in which they decay are called theta. Theta is a very important component in determining how much it costs per day to trade the position.
If an option has a decay rate of .017 per option owning 10 contracts would theoretically lose $17 per day assuming all other variables remain constant. In the example below the following data is known-
Home Depot (HD) – stock price $29.85 Sep. 30 call .39 Theta .017 Gamma .34 Vega .023
Trading Days to expiration- 9 Delta .46 Assume variables remain constant
A 10 contract position in HD would cost $390 to establish. In this case we will keep the position delta neutral so we sell 460 HD shares short at $29.85. Now the hard part is determining when to adjust the position. Gamma tells us that if the shares move up 1 point our previous delta neutral position is now 46 delta’s long(assuming variables are constant). Selling 46 shares at 30.85 would then re establish a neutral position leaving the position short 506 shares versus long 10 sep. 30 calls.
After the 1 point rally the stock fades and quickly drops ½ point. At this time we buy back 23 shares at 30.35. Later in the day the stock falls back to unchanged and keeping with our desire to stay delta neutral we buy another 23 shares at $29.85.
The end result we scalped 23 shares making 1 point or $23 and the other scalp was 23 shares for ½ point or $11.50 netting a total of $34.50 profit on the stock side. However on the option side the 10 lot position decayed $17 on the day resulting in a profit of $17.50.
The above example is a very simple example as there are other variables which don’t remain constant in the real world. Also in the example the stock made a fantastic move. One of the hardest choices is determining when to adjust the deltas. Over adjusting say every 25 cents in the above example would have turned a winner day into a loser. Below is adjusting every .25.
Sold 11 shares $30.10 bought back 11 $29.85 net $2.75
Sold 12 shares $30.35 bought back 12 $30.10 net $3.00
Sold 11 shares $30.60 bought back 11 $30.35 net $2.75
Sold 12 shares $30.85 bought back 12 $30.60 net $3.00
With decay being $17 and buying every .25 move resulted in loss of $5.50(17-11.50).
One can see how “when to adjust” is a key factor in making a move a losing or winning day. Adjusting is an art not a science. We will get into other factors to determine when to adjust but getting back to the example let’s discuss how theta can be affected. The decay of an option is not constant. If there are 10 trading days left and the option is trading for $1 it will not decay exactly .10 a day. Weekends create time for something to happen. Assuming no change in volatility an option will decay at a higher rate as it gets 6 weeks closer to expiring. One reason is the odds of the stock moving decreases as the time period decreases. A stock has a better chance to move 5 points over 50 days than it does in 5 days.
Theta changes if volatility changes. The higher the VOL the higher the price of the option resulting in higher daily decay. Conversely as VOL drops the price of the option declines and so will the daily decay. Besides Theta one should realize not only does one need to trade the gamma in such a way to make the daily decay but a change in VOL will either help or hurt Theta. One can be wrong on the adjustment of deltas on one hand and on the other make it up if VOL pops. In the case above Vega was .023 meaning a one point increase in VOL will cause the option price to increase 2.3 cents thus creating higher decay.
Generally back spreads work better on the downside for a few reasons. Stocks decline at a faster rate than they rise. Even though a stock has more upside than downside as a $30 stock can only go down $30 while the upside is theoretically infinite people seem to panic out more than they panic into a stock. Usually a decline in a stock will lead to at least a short term pop in VOL. Stocks rumors can also create a VOL pop but to the upside.
Overall one can make a lot of money with limited risk using the back spread strategy. Picking the right stock along with the right option is a key to a successful trade. Let’s take a look at real life example I will be trading this week.
I’m looking for a stock that is between strikes and FCX fits the criteria. Chart wise the stock is expected to move away from this level. It should move into the low 80’s or fall to the 73 level.
Here are the stats on FCX- $77.86
IV30 -42 IV on the 80 strike is 39 cost $1.15 per contract Gamma .074 Delta- 35
Theta -.095 Vega .048 IV360 – 44 HV360- 50 HV10 – 51 HV20 – 44
In example let’s buy 100 September 80 calls for 1.15 costing $11,500 and short (3500) shares at $77.86 (Easy to show using 100 contracts). The 740 gamma will be adjusted every ½ point today. At the end of the day will show the stock trades. Depending on the market I might trade for .25 during the slow market hours. Stay-tuned.
Trading Update
Wednesday- RESULTS (9/8/10)
Long 100 Sep. 80 calls (cost $11,500) $1.15 Close- $1.46 Profit/loss $3100
Stock (3500 @ 77.86) $79.14 loss (4480)
Trades-
SALES BUYS
(350) $78.35 (171.50)
(350) $78.85 (101.50)
(400) $79.35 400 $79.35 =
(400) $79.85 284
200 shares at $79.14 delta neutral and of day 256
Total for day (loss $1113)
Ending delta neutral – 100 sep. 80 calls/ (4400 shares short)
Analysis- Vol dropping a point cost the position almost half the loss. The other reason is the manner which we set up the scalping. Half point increments were too wide resulting in few trades. Let’s refine the scalping tomorrow as follows-
¾ point first ½ hr. of trading
½ point next hr.
¼ point next 3 hrs. Except limit only 2 buys/sells (If the stock drops from $79 to $78.75 would buy stock and again at $78.50. If dropped to $78.25 would wait for a ½ point lower. Same for the upside-limit sells to two. )
½ point last 2 hrs.
With rates so low the short stock rebate in minimal and won’t be included PNL.
