Good morning traders,

(this was written about 5:30 AM.  Check marks to see if anything has changed by the time you read this.)

• Big picture on equities from my morning Waverly Advisors report:

There is very little new to be said with regard to domestic equities.  Volatility is compressed, volume is low, trading interest appears to be muted, but all major indexes simply continue to bleed higher.  Market leaders, both individual names and sectors, are resilient and the market tone is positive early in this earnings season.  We see nothing to do other than to hold existing longs against correct stops (tight stops are now in the neighborhood of 1,270 S&P Cash for partial positions) and manage individual names accordingly.

Looking abroad, we continue to have concerns in Chinese equities, but major European (and especially German) indexes are in the process of building major breakouts through resistance.  We suspect that the underperformance of Chinese equities may be a theme that will carry through at least the first half of 2011.

• Overnight, we see basically all world markets marked higher.  Asia up strongly around 2% across the board.  Europe holding small gains fairly early in their session of just under a percent, with UK markets down .5%.
• Euro and AUD continue their recent strength, while the Dollar is under significant pressure as it drops support.  I have been looking for this breakdown for several weeks, have written about it at length in the Waverly reports, and actually just published a trade recommendation in SFO.  If we do see good momentum under support, this could be the start of a multi-month trend, so spend some time thinking, in broad strokes, about how this might carry through to other markets we follow.  (Then, realize these correlations are not as tight as most people think, so forget half of what you just figured out. 🙂 )

• And, also from my Waverly report, on metals:

Pay attention.  That is all we can say and the most important thing anyone can say at this juncture.  Platinum has broken resistance and is screaming higher, while Gold and Silver have yet to pick up the strength.  If we had to bet, we would bet on the side of the bulls across the complex, but just be aware that any move, up or down, could be dramatic as this divergence resolves.  We also do not see a clear trade at this time and remain firmly on the sidelines until a better opportunity presents itself.

• There are a number of headline risks afoot, so familiarize yourselves with what these are and then listen carefully for news items relating to these events.  It is usually a mistake to be too reactive, but if a large market move materializes, backed by one of these items you have identified as a potential headline risk catalyst, it probably makes sense to take steps to reduce your exposure.
• We are entering into the fun part of earnings season and there should be any number of good stocks in play.  Pick your spots, realize that broad market volatility is likely to continue to be muted (so perhaps expect a little less followthrough than you otherwise would), and restrict yourself to the best setups in the most in play stocks.  Happy hunting.