Traders,
I look forward to sharing some of my top ideas for the week, including my precise entry and exit targets.
Last week was rough for the markets, with only the energy sector closing in the green. We continue to see a pattern of lower highs and lower lows emergy in SPY, with $600 resistance remaining intact. So, in the short term, we are experiencing a normal correction, so it’s vital to be ultra-selective on the long side now, targeting relative strength for directional long swings.
It’s important to be aware that during such a market pullback, the likelihood of breakouts working decreases. There is also a cyclical shift that is occurring with small-caps, with the average change from open among gappers meeting specific criteria falling negative last week.
So, with caution and relative strength in mind, and not looking to be aggressive on the long side until we’re above a flattening-to-rising 5-day SMA, here’s what I’m looking at.
Bitcoin (IBIT) Short Through Critical Support: Before I go over names that are showing relative strength, one area of focus for the upcoming week is a short in IBIT if Bitcoin breaks the all-important $92k area of support. A head and shoulders pattern has emerged, with $92k the critical support zone. If Bitcoin breaks below $92k during regular trading hours, I will look for a reactive, momentum trade in IBIT, targeting a move near $50 and $88 – $87k in Bitcoin.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Now, let’s look at some names displaying relative strength.
(NYSE: ONON) has bucked the market’s trend lately and displayed rel—strength to its sector. Going forward, I’ll watch for that trend to continue and for the stock to base above its 20-day SMA. If it successfully holds above the 20-day / reclaims after a pullback, I’ll enter long on a push above $57 with a stop at the LOD, targeting a move between 1 ATR and the 52-week highs.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
(NYSE: ANF) Another retailer bucking the trend. It’s not my favorite sector to trade, but given the technical positioning of the stock, it’s worth a closer look. From the weekly to the daily, a bullish consolidation aligns on multiple timeframes. It’s been in consolidation mode for almost 5 months, with $150 significant support and $164 significant resistance. I’m not buying it in this consolidation. Instead, I’ll have alerts set and look for a hold above $164 on RVOL.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
(NASDAQ: SMTC) Moving over to the semiconductor sector, which had a major failed breakout last week, one small to midcap name that held up well and displayed impressive strength is SMTC. For that reason, it’s on my watchlist for the upcoming week, where I’ll keep tabs on the name and look for further build and relative strength. If the stock continues to form and then takes out last week’s high, that will be the trigger for me to enter long with a LOD stop. Initially, I’ll look to target a 1 ATR upmove, where I’ll cover half and trail the rest of the position.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
(NASDAQ: NBIS) Software and AI infrastructure play that has also bucked the trend and closed the week out just shy of 9%. Since the stock restarted trading in October, a steady trend has formed, where most recently, I liked the build over $26, with previous resistance turning into support. A higher low is now established above the developing 20-day and rising 5-day SMA. So, going forward, I won’t look to chase highs. Instead, I am looking for continued outperformance and, ideally, another few days to a week of consolidation and range contraction above $30 – $32 for a better R: R breakout over $34.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Lastly, something to watch for the upcoming week is whether alternative energy names, such as CEG, VST, GEV, and TLN, will continue outperforming. I’m not looking to chase 52-week highs here; I’m just keeping tabs to see if this further builds momentum.
Additional Backburner Ideas:
RGTI / IONQ: I’m not trying to pick a bottom. I would only go long if a gap down capitulates, which has not yet happened. Alternatively, I’m most interested in a multi-day grind / bounce higher, presenting another opportunity to short.
DATS: On watch for pops to short versus the HOD as long as it fails to build above multi-day VWAP and remains under Friday’s high. Move2move trading only.
SILO: On watch for a potential liquidity trap similar to SPI’s move from Friday. Move2move trading only.