In this video SMB Trader, Ryan, details a trade he made on the second day following the Airbnb IPO. This trade was his best trade ever! Ryan breaks down how he traded the IPO and answers questions from the trading community during the YouTube Premiere.
View Video Transcriptgood afternoon this is ryan trost with
smb capital today i’m going to be
talking to you about a trade i made in
airbnb
the second day after its ipo it was a
technical trade that i made off
baseball some tape uh it ended up being
my best straight in my career
and i’m really looking forward to
sharing the trade with you guys
[Music]
i mentioned this trade to you guys i
think a couple times i’ve kind of
alluded to it and we may have even
gone over it a little bit in the 11am
meetings but um
it was a key technical trade that i made
the second day in airbnb
and it’s a tape play that has become
a little bit of a recurring theme in a
lot of these ipos on the first couple
days
and it’s offered me the ability to
recognize that that is repeating and
i’ve made a couple really nice trades
probably over the past like year and a
half
purely based off of these really really
tight technical levels that develop in
real time
so the whole idea is you know airbnb
fresh ipo
it was very hyped up one of the most
anticipating offerings of the year
um probably the most anticipated
you know i remember beyond me being very
anticipated but
i haven’t seen one this anticipated
possibly in my career
um airbnb states they operate operate a
global marketplace
you know you all know the deal you rent
out places to stay at
um the open for the trade was definitely
extremely volatile and the opening price
settled i think doubled
the offering price offering size was
three and a half billion
fifty one point three million shares um
the range was 56 to 60 bucks
and obviously it opened at 146 so it was
already way over a lot of people
thinking about buying the opening print
for the opening pop
there’s a couple different ways to play
the open but this trade is specifically
talking about the day two after those
technical levels from day one were
developed
i’m sure we’ll do some on some type of
day one ipo
uh video in the future the keys that
kind of develop
the levels from day one that i used on
day two um
kind of have to do with the technical
behaviors of an ipo and that’s kind of
what i was alluding to
at the beginning due to the complete
lack of price memory
you know obviously these stocks are just
starting to trade
you can see key levels develop off the
open and those levels tend to become
extremely important
like way more important than you know
two day v wep in a stock that’s trading
all the time like a high beta
or you know a major swing breakdown or
breakout or
even anything like that which you would
look to kind of capitalize on in a
normal stock in an ipo they become even
more so
important things like the opening print
the opening range high or low
key psychological levels you know
depending on the price of the stock
whole numbers especially those divisible
by 5 10 or 100
and then finally levels that develop on
the tape in real time when you see
really big bids of really big offers
getting stacked it’s more than likely
institutional money getting put to work
in a stock that’s just starting to trade
fresh
also feel free to chime in if you guys
have any questions
during the presentation just kind of
start talking and
you know i’ll answer whatever you have
for me
so there’s a few things i was thinking
about you know and how to classify this
trade from philosophical standpoint like
when you’re really looking at trying to
evaluate okay
in a stepwise fashion what did i do here
that really got me to produce a result
that i hadn’t seen personally
and what it really came down to for me
was kind of three steps
identifying something that was happening
in real time
watching the tape noticing big blocks of
buyers and sellers
behaviors that i could recognize being
oh hey that’s interesting do i think
that there might potentially be a
serious player doing something at that
level
um you know we’re sticking to a price we
kind of maybe will blow through a level
and then instantly reoffer back down or
buyers will just continue to pop us off
of you know kind of a
what might instantly feel like a random
price but turns out to be a very
important inflection level in the future
and then once you make those
identifications moving on to
okay now i have to anticipate what is
going to happen the next time those
levels
get touched do i think that i could
potentially front run
do i need to set alerts to see whether
or not okay maybe there’s
some other stuff i’m doing and my focus
isn’t totally here yet
but if my alerts get triggered and those
are the really important prices for me i
need to be quick to you know bounce
right back into those and
really start to attack the stock and
that leads us into the third step which
is you know react
see those support and resistance levels
on the first test
be ready to hit into the market if it’s
second tesla level be ready to scale
at correct areas you know focus on risk
reward and kind of
do the trade from there if you want to
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this a little bit but large institutions
early on in ipos they tend to place
black orders at areas where
there’s more likely going to be
increased liquidity oftentimes this will
be at
25 increments you know we’ll go up a
dollar and
they’ll hold it they’ll break a new high
they’ll hold it at like 50 cents
on the tape or 75 cents or even the next
whole number
it’s rare usually that that price holds
exactly to the tick
often you see like a little bit of
slippage and then a re-offer
or just general stickiness to that area
but it can happen that those levels hold
even to the penny and if you’re reactive
enough obviously that risk reward
is unbelievable you know if you have
stock that let’s say airbnb for example
which we’ll get into you know it comes
up to like 160 bucks
and then it holds 160 bucks to the tick
and you know you place offers
you front run it 159 90 you have a 10
cent risk and if it drops out two points
twenty to one risk reward you can see
why
it starts to become really attractive
with these day one day two day three
ipos
to look for these really important
inflection areas because they so often
hold
very very tight obviously your tape
reading experience and your
attentiveness is going to be extremely
beneficial you know
if it’s your first time trading in ipo
you might start seeing things that don’t
necessarily
mean anything you could see it react at
a price and be like oh i’m going to try
there and then you try again then you
try again then you try again
you will start to realize what it looks
like when these levels actually matter
and that’s kind of the key you know
focusing on
okay i’ve seen price hit this level so
many times or oh they did just hold it
on a major
you know it’s breaking out it’s making
new highs but they held the highs to an
exact penny
let’s try it on this one but if it makes
out new highs again you know maybe give
it a little bit of a break
and start to treat the trade differently
so after day one
there were a couple levels that
developed that ended up being
pretty important the next day opening
print obviously extremely important at
146.
the initial high was exactly 165 you
know exactly what i was talking about
they held it to the penny printed it and
then
dropped it out from there the ipo low
was 141.25
150 obvious psychological level 150 50
was the previous day’s rough
v-lap close and 144 12 is the closing
print
so here’s how the chart looked this is
day one on the ipo so opens 146
rips pretty aggressively straight up to
165 holds it to the tick
and then drops out all the way um quite
a candle drop
out here this is you see this a lot on
ipos especially when it’s day one
um there you often have liquidity
vacuums where you know
price slips off of a major high
or like you know the opening print or a
major low you see
it just kind of vacuum because the bids
evaporate and people just slap the
offers
or slap the bids rather all the way down
the tape you get the liquidity vacuum
and instantly goes to view app
and then you kind of get like a
trampoline effect and then the trade
actually starts to take place
so you can see those levels developed
that i was talking about all listed here
ipo low you can see this is kind of the
opening range low
oscillated around there before bottoming
i guess for the day
150 was held on the tape one two three
four times got slipped
re-offered and that kind of led to new
lows new ipo low
150 42 you could see that close view app
and 141.45 kind of a little bit of a
level that got put in on this initial
swing low breakdown from vu app
after the open all of those levels came
into play in the next day
but specifically the area that i’m going
to be focusing on is 150 to 150 42
because there was a really interesting
thing that ended up happening on the
tape there
so now that i had you know clear levels
from day one
i wanted to formulate the trade based
off of where i was most likely to see
reactions
off of where it was opening and then
kind of just sit and wait
a lot of times people will have a bigger
idea and a fresh ipo like
you know i think this is a hot ipo it’s
going to run it’s going to trend
or this is oversubscribed way overvalued
it’s going to trend down
and they’ll try and trade around the
core you know be involved
the entire trading day and give a little
take a little out and
you know try and work a price and get
distracted you know and then if they’re
wrong you know it takes you a little bit
of time to realize that you’re wrong
so for me i just wanted to wait let it
get to the price instantly react and
then see
whether you know is this a scalp am i
just going to get a quick reaction take
off all my risk
and then realize oh hey you know this
isn’t the type of trade i need to hold
on to
i’m not walking into anything big or am
i going to get lucky here get a
breakdown and then have to adjust my
trade to be a swing
it’s tough to have that plan beforehand
because it’s a fresh ipo
the tape is going to be changing rapidly
every day but you can pick up on a
little bit of key behaviors that make
your entries and exits a lot better
i did feel like the larger time frame
slightly favored the short side in this
instance
obviously like you know most people
buying this ipo or
getting allocated shares or over
subscribing and things like that
they think you know airbnb is a very
solid company obviously it’s one of the
leaders in the space you know i think
vrbo is another instance
um probably their main competitor then
obviously
legacy hotels and things like that are
are all competing for the same
hospitality group
type idea but you have to think about it
you know it’s highly above the offer
price
we’re in you know a once in a hundred
year pandemic
logically i just didn’t really feel like
it made sense for this to just trend all
day
maybe the opening buying some people
want to be involved
and then we’ll kind of see how the tape
developed but judging by how it closed
on day one
i kind of felt like there could be some
continuation to the downside
day two
so there were three specific setups all
in the same direction to the short side
but all that kind of led and built on
each other to let me get bigger in the
next trade
and bigger in the next trade and kind of
made one
larger idea the short in airbnb
a setup that could be you know a day
making month making trade
so the first setup was a morning pop to
150
152 area from day one i’ll go over the
charts
the second was a re-test of the 150 150
50 area this is when there was a very
very unique
thing happening on the tape and then
seller steps down
from that original 150 to 50 50 area
and for some reason decides to hold
147.50 area
and then physically actually steps down
to 147
25 holds that to the penny and then
collapses the stock
so i’ll go over my executions here and
this is kind of identifying everything
this is just you know
a trader view chart clean no v-wap or
anything because i really just want you
to see how
the trade develops with the specific
inflection points and on the next chart
i’ll have the levels actually marked out
so you can see because
drawing lines in trader view is a little
bit annoying
right off the open you can kind of see
where it closed the previous day
it like would wick above 150 these are
all late prints
but it was kind of really struggling to
get up there so on the open i thought in
my head
you know it’d be really interesting if
they just kind of and i mentioned that
like 151
42-ish 150 150 area that had developed
the previous day
i kind of said in my head like i bet you
they’re just going to quickly pop it
above 150
and maybe it stops at 150 150. you know
it’s a little bit of a gamble
a little bit of a you know if this
happens obviously i’m going to get lucky
but it could be a really nice reward
area and
the reaction from that level can dictate
how i’m going to treat the stock the
rest of the day
they pop it above 150 151 and fail it
aggressively
my first thought is going to be okay the
next re-test of this area
could potentially be a re-short and risk
152
you know i can risk one two points if we
break ipo low that’s
you know about six seven eight points
the risk reward is
starting to be really good even to just
swing it and then if i can use my tape
reading skills to get an even tighter
entry
now we’re starting to see you know risk
reward wise this is going to get really
tight and i’m going to be able to size
up
into that trade itself off the open it
pops
you know this is a two two-minute chart
spends like two three minutes getting
right back into that previous day’s
range
it looked like this is a little bit of
an imbalance selling pops back
up it did exactly what i thought it was
and you know sometimes
if it does exactly what your plan is you
have to just realize all right this is a
gift i have to be quick here
it popped 150 i took a little bit ahead
of 151
knowing that i was probably willing to
just quit take a quick stop above 152
and kind of just see what happens
it re-offered 151 and the tape stepped
down 150
50. as soon as i saw that i hit my
second lot
went all the way down to 146 and i said
to myself 152 is my stop
there’s not really any reason for me to
scale out of this if anything i need to
be thinking bigger
targeting the low of the ipo it didn’t
really make sense in my head
to quickly scalp out of this and be
too reactive and like spam out of it you
know take some off really short because
ask anybody around the firm and a lot of
us
feel like if we start moving our average
price down by trading in and out
there’s a little bit of a psycholo
psychology
psychological negatives that come into
play where i’m like
oh now moving my average price on my
average price you know if i re-short
here
after taking some off you know my
re-short now my average price is 158 am
i going to hold all the way back up to
150 151
am i going to be shorting the whole way
up next you know i take an entire
average above 152.
so i really just wanted to keep the
larger time frame swing and play
you know use 150 as an inflection once
we got this kind of breakdown towards
the previous days close
use that 150 as an inflection and just
kind of build into it and see what i
could do
so i was shorting every pop comes down
shorted another pop it went a little bit
further than i thought
couldn’t break 150 and i shorted again
then as i started to tighten
the trade started to change a little bit
and i i said to myself okay if it breaks
150
i’m pretty sure i’m going to get slipped
i’m not quite sure
where it’s going to slip me to but the
type of size i have right now
i’m not really too interested in getting
slipped the whole dollar so i’m going to
take a really quick stop above 150 if it
gets there
reevaluate and potentially look for a
tight area on the tape
if that seller from previous in the day
at 151 is willing to step
down so as the trades developing
it’s important to not get wrapped into
the mindset where
in real time you’re like oh my god i
haven’t covered any you know
i’m short i didn’t take any off down
here i didn’t take any off down here
i didn’t take any off down here you know
as it starts to compress against me
yeah i’m looking more and more like i’m
going to be wrong on my initial id and
i’m going to have to be really flexible
and nimble back towards my entry price
and sure i missed out on a decent amount
of profit down here
but the idea in my head was i think this
is going to break the previous day’s low
and go to my targets which are much
lower than where i’m willing to flick in
and out
depending on your personality some
people are better at holding cores
right some people can trade around cores
really well i’ve identified myself as
not being able to do that when my
average price gets mixed up
i start to get distracted i start to
move my stop down i do kind of
key little slip ups rookie type mistakes
all because i’m over trading it
the idea here was i have my targets i
know where i’m wrong
i’m going to try and size into this ryan
sure when you’re when you’re re-shorting
at 148 149 there
how much are you adding relative to your
original
size right here yeah like like there and
the few
the few before that are you um are you
doubling your size
are you adding like quarters or like how
are you thinking about the size as
you’re
as you’re adding there yeah let me
quickly double check
the exact lots that i was using
um i just want to make sure i don’t
confuse myself here
i’m just gonna use trader view real
quick to get the exact lot sizes
okay so i’ll just give it to you in
reference here
my initial position i was using like
maybe a tenth of what i would ideally
want to get
um and i guess it kind of depends like
um i’m just trying to make sure i can’t
say the exact share amounts
i can’t say the exact share amounts
obviously
just relative to your original entry
your original you know where you
where you i’d say on on these three
shorts or this short just to double
clarify
just the ones that like the first ones
the ones at like 10
10 30 10 20. this was one lot
two lots this was um a half lot another
half lot another half lot
so i got all the way up to like tier
three right here
um and then as it came up to 150 again i
got to tier four and then took a quick
slip on it
but then i’ll you know as once that
happened
this is kind of where i started to
realize all right this trade is starting
to become something different
you know i barely took a loss i don’t
actually think i lost anything
i think i brought my average price
actually hitting here here and here my
average price came from like
150 80.
150s yeah 150 70 and it came all the way
down to like 150
14. so when i took the slip here i was
flat on the trade and i was like all
right i’m just going to reevaluate
and see what happens and see you know
are we going to fail from 150 again and
then maybe
wipe out this entire you know wedge that
formed if that’s what happens
obviously this trade kind of is going to
be okay a lower high
sure and if it fails from there we’re
definitely going to take out lows so
that’s kind of the idea
i took a quick slip on it and then as it
re-offers back down
if any of you guys are watching this
live between
150 and 150 50 every time it pushed
above like the 25
cent level or 30 or 40 cents it would
like get really close to 50 cents
and then just a massive offer would come
in and sweep everything back underneath
150.
so that happened once here and this
candle
this is a two minute chart but this
candle literally happened in like 15 to
20 seconds
it popped up to 150 50 and the seller
just destroyed it all the way back down
they held 149 to the tick
it snuck back up again you can see i was
like starting to short again
i just put a short here this is my first
my first short and at this point i was
like all right 150 50 is where i’m going
to set my stop
i was in one two three four you know i
took five entries to get up to tier four
or tier three and then tier four here
so my relative size was like
yeah let’s just say that was four tiers
because i just want to make sure i put
this in perspective here i want the lot
sizes to make sense to you guys
listening without giving away how many
shares i was because i can’t
you you basically got back in what the
amount
you’ve had before right there it sounds
like no so that’s where it gets
interesting
because i saw this tape developing i
actually ended up getting
this entry right here was already double
this entire size
because i didn’t take any loss on the
trade and now instead of my risk reward
being two points
on this original tier four technically i
was in
eight tiers right like i got huge
because
the risk was smaller size wise i had
double the amount of size
on these entries right here with a 150
51 stop
because i saw that seller stepping down
i was like oh now i have 50 cents of
risk i can get
four times bigger but i didn’t get there
yet
and then it came up a dent i think we
had a question i was just gonna say for
the
perspective thing like how many lots did
you have when you were full size for
this trade
or the max size you got eventually i got
into
i i guess technically almost 15 lots
okay wow yeah because and i
i say 15 lots because that’s relative to
the original trade
relative to my stop yeah at that time i
was probably risking
almost half my stop yeah almost half my
stop
by the time by the time i got fully in
here i was risking about half my stop
if if 150 50 lifted i was long from like
148
did you think that i could open up maybe
a buck and get super thin about that
yeah um so i say my risk was 50 cents
and technically it was i was pretty sure
i was gonna get blown out above 151
i was pretty sure judging by the
liquidity that i’d seen over the
previous day and that had been
developing on this day and
judging by the slippage originally over
150 i did think that
worst possible case i was going to get
sprayed all the way up to 151 but i did
think i was going to be out by 151
so you know it’s tough to say because it
didn’t happen
maybe i would have gotten perfect fills
and only lost half my stop
but it is interesting to note that the
size i had had i gotten slipped above
151
it probably would would have been pretty
bad but you know
the trade itself had one two three by
the time i was full size
there were four held
offers at that level and the size was
incredible you know
you guys if you were watching the tape
in real time they were just
they would just wipe the entire order
book back under 150
and that was really really rare to see
it’s so strange when the tape does
something like that
but yeah so at that point you know once
that candle hits i’m in full size
and you can see the fact that once i get
this dropout candle
i was way too big for what i felt like i
would wanted to be in based off of where
my day was at that time
like obviously i was like very
controlled here you know one two
work my way in work my way in but i do
really well at identifying these really
tight levels and if i don’t put the size
on there
it’s obviously going to be impossible to
make the amount that
you know i thought it deserved when you
see an a-plus set up and i’ve been
trading ipos
off these very specific levels for
probably like
maybe since may of what was that 2018
20 no i guess 2019. over a year and a
half i’d say i’ve been trading
these specific levels like i’ve built my
playbook out in these
going all the way back to i can’t even
can’t even name all the ipos that i’ve
done this on
so i’m kind of used to trading these
specific levels on the tape but i’ve
never seen it this clear
and i’ve never put on enough size and
every time it happens and i miss it i’m
like
i’m like they just held 25 cents or 50
cents for no reason
i saw it so clearly on the tape why
didn’t i just risk
10 cents and if i got blown out of it
you know i think
if this trade happens one in 20 times
i’m still gonna make
money overall just because the risk
reward i’m risking 50 cents and if you
look i end up
on the initial drop i already made back
my risk
right here i’m up this is 3r already
drop out here for four and a half points
you know at this point i’m already up
like 8r and this isn’t even the full
trade yet
like i haven’t even shown you guys the
actual trade yet like this is my first
original entry
to be fair this specific move i made
over my stop
i think i made like 1.5 times my stop on
this trade
but what ended up happening much later
was what made me feel like
okay now i’ve built up all this p l and
you know the rest of trades
here is pretty self-explanatory you get
the dropout i trimmed off like
you know let’s say i was in 15 lots i
was down to like 10 lots here really
quickly take a third off
just because i felt like i was oversized
and then i really slowly trimmed off
here like one lot two lots three lots
four lots five lots
and then i took a lot off down here but
not everything i was probably down to
like
this original size by the time it came
down to 143
now it’s a swing i still think it can go
sub 140
the next bounce is going to be really
important because i don’t know what i
don’t know who
was doing what up here i don’t know why
all i know is that
whatever they were doing up here
whatever the seller wanted to do maybe
it’s someone huge who was
trying to get out of a bunch of shares
they were allocated you know i honestly
don’t know and i don’t even really
necessarily need to know
all i know is that the level on the tape
was so clear i was able to hit it
and then once you get confirmation and
it kind of wipes out all these people
who’ve been buying in this compression
now we are now we have a trade where the
next aggressive bounce
is going to be the trade of the day i
just need to try and figure out okay am
i going gonna have to scale into that
and use a really good normal risk reward
or am i going to
have to see another level on the tape
where whoever this is steps down to
it’s rare that someone would hold the
tape that strictly and then step
down and do the exact same thing again
but lo and behold that’s actually what
ends up happening
any questions before i move on to part
three of the trade
this is part one and this is part two so
let’s look at this chart again
obviously without the entries these are
all the levels plotted
you know we got the pop i shorted up
here was kind of shorting every pop
shorting this pop holding holding
holding got wicked in
you kind of see this behavior on one
minute they’d push it back down
push it back down this wick was like 10
seconds
wick it back down wick it back down so
it ends up happening on a one minute
chart it’s even more clear one two
three four five six seven eight nine ten
eleven
twelve times if this guy holds one 150
50. like i i didn’t know why this was
happening
but i just knew that the risk reward was
so good if i could
get this within 50 cents you know i’m
gonna get
probably eight points out of this trade
if my thesis is correct
so obviously i scaled out into all of
this had some levels from the pre-market
that i wanted to take risk off into and
then the next idea was all right when it
pulls into view app
what am i going to do up there you know
i have by that time i had like
you know a few shares left nothing too
big
and my initial reaction i had made
actually i’m looking at the piano on
trader view i’d made exactly my stop on
this overall trade
so i in my head thought all right if
there’s a clearer level
i can now risk the same amount that i
risked originally
if i’m wrong on the day i’ll still make
half my stop but if i’m right i’m going
to have the biggest day in my career
that’s kind of a product of my
personality and don’t get me wrong like
that gets me into trouble a lot
and it’s something that i’m working on
trying to figure out
when the trade deserves the level of
aggression that my personality wants to
attribute to it
everybody’s different some people are
risk adverse some people are really
prone to risk
some people you know are always looking
to get big always looking to
capitalize on when they see their a plus
trades
you have to find that balance and i’m
still trying to find that balance don’t
get me wrong
but in this specific instance i felt
like
i had had significant edge trading these
ipos
day one day two day three and i really
wanted to step into it
knowing that i had a really nice buffer
it was already starting to look like it
was one of my better days
of the month in december um and i really
wanted to step into it you know the year
was ending
not sure how much more opportunities
we’re gonna get et cetera et cetera you
know you could
in real time attribute your proclivity
towards risk
to anything but for me i just felt like
the risk reward was too good that if
this
you know if this took out lows made new
ipo lows
and i had the kind of size that i’m
going to get with 50 cents of risk
this is going to be an enormous trade
for me i just need to figure out where
that level is going to be on the retest
so i wasn’t really doing anything to be
honest with you i kind of just wanted to
wait and see what happened at vwep
i was waiting waiting obviously it kind
of grinds up but no weird behaviors on
the tape you know normal stuff
kind of watching this 146 which was the
opening print
but hadn’t really respected it at all so
i wasn’t interested in shorting around
that even though the first pop held it
to the tick
you know i wasn’t really involved
re-adding or anything
it’s kind of oscillating around never
really holds it cleanly
then it will hold it but then it will
wick above it’s kind of just trapping
people
who were paying too close attention to
it at that time
area where i really started to notice
that there was something going on in the
tape
again very similar to whatever block
seller was up here
was right around like 147. it’s like
this pop right here
goes to 147.50 literally to the tick
they step down and then they start
holding it to the quarter
like 147 25 to the tick they hold it one
time there
two times there three times there four
times there
after the fourth time as it’s kind of
like sitting at 147
i said in my head i’m like all right now
i have 25 cents of risk
if it pops up above 147.25
you know i could always just size down
kind of short into view app
be a little bit more patient kind of see
if it’ll pop all the way back up to 149.
maybe it needs to re-test this kind of
consolidation here where we kind of
started to curl up
you know 148.50ish maybe the original
breakdown
so i was okay if i got taken out above
147.25
because i was going to reshore it anyway
and i still had the idea that
you know if you block out all this
obviously i still had the idea that we
were going to make lows
so you know 142 50ish shorting 147
you know five points of risk i could
give it all the way up to 150 and the
reward’s still okay
but the odds of it actually rolling
become less and less obviously the more
time it spends up here back in this you
know developing morning range
anyway after the fourth time i held
147.25 i was like all right
i’m just gonna go for it if i lose 25
cents on this size it’s not going to
damage me too much
i’ll lose half of what i’ve made on the
day but then i can kind of
take a fresh look at it and reevaluate
and see what happens
i think i put on the exact same amount
of size 15 lots again
comparatively to what i had earlier
half the risk now so i even could have
been bigger comparatively to my stop you
know risking half my stop again
i probably could have risked my whole
stop
but you know it’s tough to say like
obviously you could be like oh you would
have made so much more the risk was
tighter why didn’t you get bigger i mean
i was already risking half my stop
i was being hyper aggressive you know
willing to
give a decent amount of my day back
which is a little bit dangerous but
obviously if you want to swing for the
fences and you see an a plus
trade you know that is what you have to
do and that’s how you have to react
so i ended up getting 147.06 or 147.07
on the lot and my stop i kid you not was
147.26
and it held it perfectly to the tick
broke down i actually
stepped away from my computer for i
think like three minutes to get a glass
of water
i came back and it was already
underneath 146 and i had all that size
and i was like well you know i’m not
going to cover any here it doesn’t
really make any sense i just got
they just vacuumed us down i’m just
going to see what happens so i actually
took my dog out to my roof to go
to the bathroom brought him back down
and you know we were down here at 141
so there’s a little bit of luck
in holding it but you know my target was
under here anyway
like i wasn’t going to take any off
under 143 because i knew what i was
going to make if it kind of dropped out
like this
i didn’t think that it was going to do
this like this initial part of the move
where it kind of took out 140 and took
out this pre-market range
that didn’t surprise me it surprised me
obviously how quick it went but you know
i knew it was an ipo and it had
opportunity to you know have the
liquidity vacuums like this
but once it kind of really went right
here let’s see if my execute i think my
executions are on the next page
so you can see where i got short set my
stop
didn’t do anything here it hit my target
which was like right at 142
and i took my first lot off and at that
point
the tape was moving so quick i was like
all right i just want to see kind of
where this is going to go
maybe it actually drops out and and
starts to build on itself like you know
this thing was priced what like
80 bucks lower like you kind of have to
use your imagination
and just think about the range that it’s
expanded how much energy it’s used
um you obviously you can’t really use
atr or anything like that
you really just have to look for like
capitulatory type action and the volume
and that’s kind of what we started to
get in this candle but you could see
like i wasn’t anywhere close to covering
lows on this
i was really trying to read the tape
down here but it
was pretty crazy i hadn’t seen you know
a stock move like this
day two off an ipo like day one usually
you get
moves that are this violent but like day
two this was crazy selling
so i did my best to get out you know at
the best prices i could but i
was out ahead of 138 obviously collapsed
to 135 i think i had like
a little bit of size left i don’t think
this got me flat i probably had like two
tiers left like something really small
out of like the 15 i started with i got
down to like
probably 10 here down to five here
maybe five or three something like that
and then i was reshorting the pop just
kind of using levels
re-shorting covering dips and i didn’t
really make too much
um and then i ended up covering the
whole thing back above 140 when it kind
of
spiked back up here and just left it
alone because it was getting really
close to the end of the day
and it didn’t quite roll like i thought
it could into the close
but yeah you know the main part of the
trade was recognizing
this level develop a 150 50 using it
you know setting the stop to as tight as
i needed to
and then seeing that seller step down to
147
25-ish um hitting it again and
obviously you know we get the collapse
and i did my best to cover is
pretty violent on the tape and it could
vacuum back up two three bucks
so i had to be a little bit careful and
kind of sell into the down moves
and that’s why you know the down moves
move a little bit quicker i’d rather be
selling into the weakness
than be selling as it’s popping back up
against me
it’s a little bit better psychologically
for me to sell into those down wicks if
it goes a little bit further i’m like oh
that’s okay i still have a little bit of
my core left
and that’s kind of a better way to think
about it for me
but yeah any questions that basically
wraps up you know the trade in
in the whole if you guys have any other
clarifying things you want to ask
thanks ryan yeah thanks so much for
listening guys uh i appreciate it
uh happy new year and as always reach
out if you guys have any questions about
this trade or
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