We closed below an important technical level 1080 S&P 500. I watch SPY and a close below 107.50 confirmed weakness. I traded from the short side today in SOHU, COF, and FCX. But I am not ready to lay into my shorts just yet. Let’s discuss.
Tomorrow I will pick some market stocks and look for opportunities to short as long as we are below SPY 107.50. But I wasn’t crazy about a few things I saw into the Close. 1)We didn’t close near the low. 2) I didn’t see the volume I would expect below an important technical level, 107.50 SPY. 3) Important stocks are still hovering near and above support like IBM at 120, FCX near 80, and GS still above 180. 4) SPY 106.65 offered strong support on the tape and we closed above this level. 5) When we slipped below 107.50 the downmoves were too controlled.
I trade with an open mind and perhaps tomorrow we will see continued weakness. A move below 106.65 SPY and I will look to aggressively short if the market shows me weakness. And again I will not play the market from the long side until we hold above SPY 107.50. But for the reasons above today was not what the market looks like on the tape when it is incredibly weak.
Thoughts on the market action today?
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21 Comments on “Not Convinced of a Reversal Yet”
Until crude and the euro can sustain some downward momentum, the S&P will not break down. I would look to see if crude can take out 76.50 and the euro can hold below 1.48 to help confirm a downward move in the S&P. I would also watch this week’s API and DOE’s closely because last week’s numbers were arguably bearish yet they rallied crude up $5. When bearish inventory data leads to broad based selloffs I will be far happier to join team short.
Until crude and the euro can sustain some downward momentum, the S&P will not break down. I would look to see if crude can take out 76.50 and the euro can hold below 1.48 to help confirm a downward move in the S&P. I would also watch this week’s API and DOE’s closely because last week’s numbers were arguably bearish yet they rallied crude up $5. When bearish inventory data leads to broad based selloffs I will be far happier to join team short.
Until crude and the euro can sustain some downward momentum, the S&P will not break down. I would look to see if crude can take out 76.50 and the euro can hold below 1.48 to help confirm a downward move in the S&P. I would also watch this week’s API and DOE’s closely because last week’s numbers were arguably bearish yet they rallied crude up $5. When bearish inventory data leads to broad based selloffs I will be far happier to join team short.
Got about 20 pts left and then we should (potentially) find support. Also coincides with big support on CL and big resistance on DX.
BIDU should be interesting tomorrow, maybe buy some volatility via straddles and gamma scalp around. Or just buy puts on weakness.
Got about 20 pts left and then we should (potentially) find support. Also coincides with big support on CL and big resistance on DX.
BIDU should be interesting tomorrow, maybe buy some volatility via straddles and gamma scalp around. Or just buy puts on weakness.
Got about 20 pts left and then we should (potentially) find support. Also coincides with big support on CL and big resistance on DX.
BIDU should be interesting tomorrow, maybe buy some volatility via straddles and gamma scalp around. Or just buy puts on weakness.
The SPY price is entering the range between the 50% and the 38.2% fibonacci retracement from the October Low of 101.99 to the recent high of 110.31. Possible support? Only time will tell i guess.
The SPY price is entering the range between the 50% and the 38.2% fibonacci retracement from the October Low of 101.99 to the recent high of 110.31. Possible support? Only time will tell i guess.
The SPY price is entering the range between the 50% and the 38.2% fibonacci retracement from the October Low of 101.99 to the recent high of 110.31. Possible support? Only time will tell i guess.
We didn’t close near the low? Define “close.” The SPX closed at 1066.94. This is 1.71pts off the low. SPY 106.65 “support” is likely not important at all if you do not see considerable volume, which you said you didn’t near here. You mention three “important technical levels” in your post (1080, 107.50, 106.65). Maybe you would like to pull up a 30sec, 15sec, 5sec and tick chart. I’m sure you could find some more “important technical levels” to keep yourself amused.
You seem to be making up reasons to compete with blogs of other short-term counter-trend equities traders.
Maybe you would like to find more reasons in the commodities, fixed-income and political worlds. For example, the FT article last week speaking of higher interest-rates possibly coming sooner than expected, concern of housing tax-credit will end (which is ridiculous b/c everyone knew the expiration date on announcement), $80 oil plus growing concern of inflation following increases in consumer spending, etc etc etc.
We didn’t close near the low? Define “close.” The SPX closed at 1066.94. This is 1.71pts off the low. SPY 106.65 “support” is likely not important at all if you do not see considerable volume, which you said you didn’t near here. You mention three “important technical levels” in your post (1080, 107.50, 106.65). Maybe you would like to pull up a 30sec, 15sec, 5sec and tick chart. I’m sure you could find some more “important technical levels” to keep yourself amused.
You seem to be making up reasons to compete with blogs of other short-term counter-trend equities traders.
Maybe you would like to find more reasons in the commodities, fixed-income and political worlds. For example, the FT article last week speaking of higher interest-rates possibly coming sooner than expected, concern of housing tax-credit will end (which is ridiculous b/c everyone knew the expiration date on announcement), $80 oil plus growing concern of inflation following increases in consumer spending, etc etc etc.
We didn’t close near the low? Define “close.” The SPX closed at 1066.94. This is 1.71pts off the low. SPY 106.65 “support” is likely not important at all if you do not see considerable volume, which you said you didn’t near here. You mention three “important technical levels” in your post (1080, 107.50, 106.65). Maybe you would like to pull up a 30sec, 15sec, 5sec and tick chart. I’m sure you could find some more “important technical levels” to keep yourself amused.
You seem to be making up reasons to compete with blogs of other short-term counter-trend equities traders.
Maybe you would like to find more reasons in the commodities, fixed-income and political worlds. For example, the FT article last week speaking of higher interest-rates possibly coming sooner than expected, concern of housing tax-credit will end (which is ridiculous b/c everyone knew the expiration date on announcement), $80 oil plus growing concern of inflation following increases in consumer spending, etc etc etc.
Bella
Could you briefly talk about the difference between trading market stocks as opposed to just trading the Spy, which method you prefer and why.
Bass
Bella
Could you briefly talk about the difference between trading market stocks as opposed to just trading the Spy, which method you prefer and why.
Bass
Bella
Could you briefly talk about the difference between trading market stocks as opposed to just trading the Spy, which method you prefer and why.
Bass
I’ve been trading ten years, and at firms as well as home and i’ve never heard the term “lay into my shorts”.
talk english, guy.
I’ve been trading ten years, and at firms as well as home and i’ve never heard the term “lay into my shorts”.
talk english, guy.
I’ve been trading ten years, and at firms as well as home and i’ve never heard the term “lay into my shorts”.
talk english, guy.
yeah, and one other thing.
back in the tech runup in the late nineties and into two thousand, closing near the highs or near the lows meant something. it hasn’t since then, though.
i know it’s one of those things that seems to make sense, but maybe some evidence that it actually works nowadays?
yeah, and one other thing.
back in the tech runup in the late nineties and into two thousand, closing near the highs or near the lows meant something. it hasn’t since then, though.
i know it’s one of those things that seems to make sense, but maybe some evidence that it actually works nowadays?
yeah, and one other thing.
back in the tech runup in the late nineties and into two thousand, closing near the highs or near the lows meant something. it hasn’t since then, though.
i know it’s one of those things that seems to make sense, but maybe some evidence that it actually works nowadays?